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Explaining the Origin of the Fiscal Threat

The fiscal and economic threat created by the parties was part intentional, part coincidental.

The intentional: Since Ronald Reagan's administration, with mixed results, presidents and Congresses have occasionally mandated a self-imposed future crisis to force themselves to agree on unpopular tax and spending actions. In that spirit, the idea behind the August 2011 deal was that Republicans would so greatly fear the military cuts, and Democrats the domestic spending cuts, that they would negotiate a deficit-reduction alternative by the Jan. 1 deadline.

The coincidental: The measures from the 2011 deal are set to take effect at the same time as the changes to jobless benefits, the alternative minimum tax adjustment and the Medicare “doc fix,” and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts - a confluence that the two parties did not fully expect back in August 2011. The nation will also reach its debt ceiling in January, creating additional uncertainty. Accounting m aneuvers by the Treasury Department could push that deadline to March, but Mr. Obama wants a debt-limit increase as part of any deal, adding another item to the agenda.