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Projections Show U.S. Budget Deficit Will Shrink

WASHINGTON â€" The federal budget deficit will fall to $759 billion for the fiscal year that ends this September, a $214 billion improvement from the projection made in March, as spending cuts, tax increases and an improving economy begin to tame the government’s red ink, the White House budget office said on Monday.

The annual midsession review from the White House Office of Management and Budget was largely in line with a recent forecast from the Congressional Budget Office. Both see a rapid decline in deficits expressed as a percentage of the economy, the fastest since the years following World War II, according to Sylvia Mathews Burwell, the White House budget director. A White House official said this year’s deficit would reach 4.7 percent of the gross domestic product, down from more than 10 percent four years ago, and would continue to slide to 3 percent of the economy by 2017.

But absent structural changes to Medicare and Social Security, the forecast makes clear that such short-run improvements may not last. The White House projected the deficit to bottom out at $496 billion in 2018, then start ticking back up to $593 billion in 2022.

Over the course of the next decade, a White House official said nearly $6.6 trillion will be added to the federal debt, with President Obama’s policies in place. That is slightly higher than the $6.3 trillion that the Congressional Budget Office said current policies without additional changes would add to the debt through 2023. The office’s forecast assumes the automatic spending cuts known as sequestration will remain in force, while the president’s figures assume they will not.

Senator Jeff Sessions of Alabama, the ranking Republican on the Senate Budget Committee, said total spending under the president’s budget would rise $1.5 trillion â€" about where it would be without policy changes.

“Ominously, the president provides no serious proposal for strengthening and preserving our unsustainable Medicare and Social Security programs,” Mr. Sessions said.

Still, both the White House and the Congressional Budget Office deficit figures mark a steady improvement in the federal government’s fiscal picture as Washington approaches its next budget showdown.

On Sept. 30, the spending laws now financing the government will expire, and the House and Senate are far apart in the amount of money the chambers want to allocate for the next fiscal year. In October or November, the government will exhaust its ability to borrow, and Republican leaders in Congress have said they will not raise the government’s debt limit without more concessions, either on spending, entitlement programs like Medicare, or an overhaul of the tax code.

For his part, Mr. Obama is sticking to jobs proposals that include spending increases on roads, bridges and other infrastructure that are included in his spending forecast.

“The president believes our top priority must be strengthening the true engine of economic growth - a rising and thriving middle class,” Ms. Burwell said. “The 2014 budget demonstrates that we do not need to choose between making critical investments necessary to help grow our economy and support middle class families and continuing to cut the deficit in a balanced way.”

Republicans in Congress, who are pressing for a budget that actually balances in 10 years, did not greet the new figures with relief.

“The president’s plan is simply to tax more in order to spend more: avoiding any attempt at reducing the waste and inefficiency that plagues the federal budget,” Mr. Sessions said.



10 Questions for Obama’s Chief Technology Officer

Todd Park, a former Silicon Valley entrepreneur, serves as President Obama’s chief technology officer. His role has taken on heightened importance after several recent developments, including the implementation of the new health care law, efforts to reduce the backlog in Department of Veterans Affairs claims processing, and privacy issues raised by disclosures about data collection by the National Security Agency. Mr. Park spoke with John Harwood of The Times and CNBC at the White House as Mr. Obama publicly challenged his administration to improve the government’s innovation and efficiency in his second term.

What follows is a condensed, edited account of their conversation.

Q.

Government has a reputation for being clunky, slow, inefficient. What do you think you have been able to accomplish?

A.

There are phenomenal people harnessing the power of tech and innovation to help government work better, cost less and help grow the economy. For example, in the recent Hurricane Sandy and Oklahoma tornado response, FEMA has harnessed tech in all kinds of ways to deliver better results. To get housing to folks, you used to rely exclusively on the ground inspectors, now we can use satellite and analytics to figure out what areas need help and get help faster. In addition, a majority of folks who registered for disaster aid post-Sandy were able to do so via mobile phone or Internet. Even when folks didn’t have access, FEMA inspectors came back with iPads to actually register them for aid.

Another example: I was recently traveling with the president to Austin, where he launched a new executive order that opens up tons of government data â€" everything from health and medicine and science to safety and more â€" as machine-readable, free fuel for entrepreneurs to tap to create new companies and jobs. The president’s attitude is, this is America’s data. All kinds of entrepreneurs are picking up that data to help grow the economy.

Q.

Possibly the biggest thing the government has going right now is trying to implement the health care law. The administration announced a delay in the employer mandate; they couldn’t get it done in time. What does that tell you about the limits of technology in making it work more rapidly and efficiently?

A.

The president is really focused on implementing the law very well. Business expressed concern that there are issues to be worked through, so it was a sensible thing to do to say, “O.K., let’s work through those issues.” Oct. 1, we’ll be bringing live the new health marketplaces. Things are on track to make that happen. There is a whole team at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services working incredibly hard, night and day, on bringing out these new health marketplaces. We have actually done a huge amount of user testing on it to make sure the Web site is as user-friendly as possible. The prototypes are incredibly impressive.

Q.

No doubt they’ll be up and running in October?

A.

They’ll be up and running Oct. 1.

Q.

Let me ask you about the culture of Washington. It has a reputation as being the opposite of the Silicon Valley culture in terms of agility and decision-making, flexibility, innovation. What have you found?

A.

I have actually found a lot more similarities than you might expect. Whenever the president gives us a mission to harness tech innovation and get something done for the American people, in terms of growing the economy and improving health care, we go find the folks across government who have been dreaming about that for a really long time. They’re out there, they’re incredibly talented innovators. We team them together into what we call a virtual start-up that’s running inside the government, to move Silicon Valley speed to get stuff done. When you have the air cover like President Obama, who is deeply passionate about harnessing innovation and tech, it is possible for these focused teams to get a lot done in a short period of time. It’s hard to actually build anything new, but it turns out if you apply a lot of the same techniques that make Silicon Valley companies successful to internally change parts of the government, they definitely work.

Q.

Talk about how those virtual start-ups work, and how many are there?

A.

The way they operate is modeled on a philosophy called “lean start-up,” which was popularized recently by Eric Ries. You want to build small, interdisciplinary, agile teams that have strategy, policy, ops and tech all represented in one team, all working to solve one problem. Secondly, there’s an emphasis on rapid prototype. You don’t think aircraft carrier, you think rowboat â€" the smallest possible thing I can deliver to my actual customer as early as possible, so they can actually start getting their engagement. The third principle is rapid iteration â€" iterate that product at high speeds with versions released every few days or every few weeks, instead of every few months or years, so you maximize the learning. So from the ground up, you eventually get to a real understanding of what the customer wanted and how to create something that delivers that. So that’s the model that we’ve been adopting.

There are about 15 or so that I personally oversee. But this is actually a model that’s been cloned across the government. The key is that we have an idea, we find the three or five people initially that had the idea a long time ago or had a similar idea across the government, put them together in this lean start-up team, liberate them to actually operate, give them the air coverage to do so, and they rock ’n’ roll from there.

Q.

One of the innovations the president is going to talk about is something called Blue Button at the Department of Veterans Affairs to help people get their medical records quickly. The department has gotten a reputation for the very slow process of handling disability claims, and it has gotten mocked for stacks of paper records. So why shouldn’t the average person say, “Great, Blue Button is fantastic, but you have such a bigger problem than that and you aren’t making much headway?”

A.

The backlog issue, as you know, is one that the administration inherited. The administration, on top of that, passed a whole set of rules that expand eligibility and increase the number of claims. There is an unprecedented, governmentwide effort that is pretty amazing to take that problem out, to take the whole backlog problem out â€" to apply technology and process change. We’re actually beginning to see the progress of the backlog beginning to come down at a growing clip, and we think we’re going to be able to meet our goals there. The president has made it super clear that this is a top, major priority. There’s a huge team, a cross-agency team, a cross-government team that’s actually working very hard at this complex problem and taking it out.

Q.

You did consulting for Booz Allen Hamilton, the firm that employed the National Security Agency leaker Edward J. Snowden. What is your concern in regard to privacy with government technology and the centralization of information?

A.

It’s incredibly important to protect personal privacy, and it’s something that the administration has been championing from the very beginning, advocating for consumer privacy bill of rights and making sure we build privacy protections into the Affordable Care Act and lots of different venues of activity. I think a lot has been accomplished there. I think it’s important to stay abreast of the continuing trends, and to make sure that we are tracking with those trends and ensuring that consumer privacy is protected everywhere possible.

Q.

What’s a reasonable way of looking at the success of the open-data policy that the president implemented? How quickly will we see results from that?

A.

That’s something actually that we’ve been working on since the president’s first day in office, when he submitted his open-government memorandum. There’s over 75,000 data sets on data.gov already, everything from daily hospital charges for different procedures across the country, to credit card complaints, account affordability, weather, climate, and so forth. So there’s a bunch of data that’s already been out there, and a bunch of data that has been downloaded and used by companies like Opower, which is a start-up that uses government energy trends and weather data to help consumers save money on their energy bills. Companies like iTriage, which was started a couple of years ago from a couple of emergency room doctors from Denver, that used downloaded data from the Department of Health and Human Services to help you use on a mobile app, based on what’s wrong with you, to get the est local doctors and hospitals to help you. What the executive order does is it says, going forward as a new default, all new or modernized government resources should be made open and machine-readable while protecting privacy and national security, which turbocharges the number of data sets on data.gov, and therefore turbocharges the new company creation and job creation that results.

Q.

Do you feel, as a Silicon Valley guy that has started companies, like a fish out of water in Washington?

A.

A lot of people ask me that question, a lot of my friends back home. It’s been the most amazing entrepreneurial experience I’ve ever had. The opportunity you have here to work with teams that are making changes happen at scale is quite extraordinary. The impact you can have is mass times velocity. If you take an opportunity like this, with the scale of opportunity for change that it has, and combine it with the ability to do lean start-up with air cover of the president to make change happen rapidly, that mass times velocity equation is going to have an impact.

Q.

I thought Washington was all mass and no velocity.

A.

It’s interesting. It turns out that it can have velocity on innovation ambitions, if you have a president that cares about that.

Transcribed by Katherine L. Kreider



A Jam-Band Experiment in Live Hi-Fi

Umphrey’s McGee, a well-known ensemble on the jam-band circuit, is engaged in an experiment that may change the way we listen to live music - or at least the way a percentage of the audience does.

What the band has done is to leverage the wireless technology that broadcasts music from the sound engineer’s mixing board to band members.

Umphrey’s fans can rent a wireless receiver and headphones that let them hear what the musicians hear, unaffected by the venue’s acoustics.

The receiving is done by a Sennheiser EK G3 wireless bodypack receiver, which is about the size of a pack of cards and clips to a belt or fits in a pocket. It is wired to a pair of Audio Technica ATH-M50 Professional Studio Monitor headphones.

The experiment is still in the early stages. Kevin Browning, strategy manager for the band and originator of the idea, said the system could support an unlimited number of headphones, although they are currently renting only 20.

That’s because system has some kinks to work out. Those kinks are more financial than technical. While renting the receiver and headphones is only $40, and you get a free digital download of that night’s show included, there is a heavy $500 deposit to cover the cost of the receiver and headset.

It’s also not a solution for people who find the shows too loud. To experience improved fidelity, the headphones need to be at least loud enough to match the amount of sound leaking into the headset, which is a significant amount. Fans can bring their own headphones to attach to the receiver, and it’s possible that a pair of in-ear sound isolating headphones might work to reduce the volume.

The volume levels didn’t seem to bother the renters at a show in Baltimore who appeared to listen in a state of near rapture.

In fact, said Matt Heller, who handles the rentals at each show, many of the people who rent the sets want the show to be louder. Mr. Heller said he rented a headset to a middle-aged fan in Los Angeles last March. “He took his hearing aids out, put on the headphones and said he had never heard a show sounded that well,” Mr. Heller said. “He was pretty much shedding tears.”

The band is looking into ways to drive down costs. One obvious route would be using an app to let people use their phones to listen by Wi-Fi. “That is very much being pursued,” Mr. Browning said. But there is a technological problem with sound delay, that makes the music broadcast out of sync with the band. “There are logistical hurdles that have stumped some engineers above my pay grade,” Mr. Browning said.



Obama Administration Rules Out Suspension of Aid to Egypt in Near Term

The White House called on all sides in Egypt on Monday to refrain from violence and return to democracy but rejected an immediate cutoff of American assistance despite a law requiring the suspension of aid to countries after a military coup d’état.

Jay Carney, the White House press secretary, told reporters that the Obama administration would study the events in Egypt to determine whether the military seizing of power constitutes a military coup d’état under law. But he added that the administration planned to take its time in making such a determination and ruled out any suspension of aid in the near term.

“We think that would not be in our best interests,” Mr. Carney said. “We are going to examine this and monitor this and take the time necessary in making the determination in a manner that’s consistent with our policy objectives and our national security interests.”

He added, “But we do not believe that it is in our interests to make a precipitous decision or determination to change our assistance program right away.”

The White House hopes to use the leverage of $1.5 billion annual aid to Egypt to shape events without actually cutting it off, even as violence has spiraled in the days since the military forced out President Mohamed Morsi. Shutting down aid at this point, White House officials have said privately in recent days, would reduce their ability to forestall further violence and repression of dissent in Egypt.

President Obama has made no public comments about Egypt since Mr. Morsi’s ouster other than a written statement. On Monday he once again offered no assessment or advice about what is happening in Cairo and elsewhere in the country. In his only public appearance of the day, he talked about making government more efficient without mentioning the drama in the country that once was the most important American ally in the Arab world.

The Foreign Assistance Act says no aid other than that for democracy promotion can go to “any country whose duly elected head of government is deposed by military coup d’état,” or where the “the military plays a decisive role” in a coup. The law allows no presidential waiver, and it says that aid cannot be restored until “a democratically elected government has taken office.”

Since 1979, Egypt has been the second-largest recipient of American aid after Israel. Mr. Obama has proposed $1.3 billion in aid to the Egyptian military and another $250 million for economic aid in the fiscal year that starts Oct. 1. But the most recent transfer of military aid took place in May, so the next tranche would most likely not go to Egypt until early next year at the earliest.

Egyptian officials have argued that the military’s ouster of Mr. Morsi last week did not constitute a military coup because it came in response to millions of Egyptians who had flooded into the streets protesting the government run by Muslim Brotherhood figures. They added that the military installed a civilian interim president.

Mr. Carney suggested that argument would weigh on the administration as it determined whether to invoke the aid cutoff law.

“President Obama made clear our deep concern about the decision made by the Egyptian armed forces to remove President Morsi from power and to suspend the constitution,” he said. “It is also important to acknowledge that tens of millions of Egyptians have legitimate grievances with President Morsi’s undemocratic form of government - governance - and they do not believe that this was a coup. Indeed, they were demanding a new government.”

Mr. Carney repeated that the United States was not taking sides but called on the military to refrain from force and the Muslim Brotherhood to avoid violence. “We also call on all political parties and movements to remain engaged in dialogue and to commit to participating in a political process to hasten the return of full authority to a democratically elected government,” he said.



App Smart Extra: Emergency!

Last week my App Smart column was about apps that can help you prepare for and deal with all sorts of different emergency situations. Since they’re portable and we tend to take them almost everywhere with us, smartphones can be an incredibly useful emergency tool because even if you’re not using them to call for help, they can carry apps packed with useful data.

The American Red Cross has an app that helps in delivering first aid in emergency medical situations. It’s designed so that it’s clearly split into different sections for learning, preparing and dealing with an emergency. Tapping the big “!” emergency button brings up a list of different situations the app has information on, each with a small icon to guide your choice.

This data covers everything from allergies and asthma attacks to strokes and unconsciousness. Choosing one of the options takes you to a page that’s full of easy-to-follow data on what to do, arranged as a step-by-step guide. There’s even a button to call 911, and in some cases a short video or a diagram to guide you through the emergency. Once you’ve dealt with the situation, you may find it useful to click on the “learn more” button at the bottom of these pages, which takes you to even more information on what to do next.

This app is simple, straightforward and very easy to use â€" exactly what you need in an emergency. It’s free on iOS and Android.

Keeping so-called “ICE” (in case of emergency) information on your devices, is a great idea nowadays because it can really help emergency response teams. Free Android app ICE from Sera Apps is a good option, because it’s simple and the icons on its main page give quick access to different sorts of data like medical information or emergency contact details. On iOS a good equivalent is Minute Apps’ ICE (In Case Of Emergency) app. It’s $2, but this app even allows you to store photos of your ID cards.

FEMA has its own apps for use in disaster or emergency situations. The apps, as you may expect from a government body, are very dry in style and perhaps boring in design, but they do contain a lot of data. The app’s two main sections ask “are you prepared?” and “are you a disaster survivor?” Tapping on the relevant button takes you either to pages of data on how to prepare for emergencies like severe storms or to data on how to call for help. You can make these calls from inside the app, through a phone or Web link. The app also has data on disaster recovery centers across the United States.

The FEMA apps (iOS and Android) are free and very “official,” so it’s probably worth keeping them handy. But much of the data they contain is available elsewhere, too, and other apps may be more user-friendly in the case of a real life emergency.

It’s worth noting that in a disaster you may not be able to get power or an Internet connection, and in an emergency every moment counts. So if you’re planning on using your phone as an emergency multitool, it’s probably best to download apps well ahead of time.

Quick Call

The ABC News app is now available as a free Windows Phone 8 app from Microsoft’s App Store. It’s full of ABC’s News content, in article and video form, and you can also see news that’s trending.



Looking for a More Durable iPhone Case

SmartFlex Shine cases from Speck. SmartFlex Shine cases from Speck.

In the oversaturated market for cellphone cases, manufacturers elbow one another to gain the attention of consumers, but few actually introduce anything new.

Speck, a case maker in Mountain View, Calif., has pushed to stay ahead of the pack with a focus on blending engineering and style, which has earned the company a few patents for its designs.

The company’s latest innovation is the SmartFlex Shine case, which uses a so-called in-mold labeling technology to give the cases a shimmery hue.

The design of the SmartFlex Shine case incorporates a metal-flecked base layer with a scratch-resistant finish that is intended to be more durable than the painted finish on most cases.

The case is lightweight and offers a slim fit, and paired with the glossy exterior is a flexible, rubberized interior that provides ample shock protection.

Speck cases can be found at most retailers, but the SmartFlex Shine is available only on Speck’s Web site, for $35. The case comes in five colors and is designed to fit the iPhone 5.



Q&A: Avoiding Mobile Malware

Q.

Why is Android such a big target for malware, and how can I tell if an app may be suspect before I install it?

A.

Android has become the dominant mobile operating system around the world, and like Windows before it, malware writers typically target the most commonly used platform in hopes of snaring the most victims. Not all phones can run the latest, more secure versions of the Android system, which can make them more vulnerable to malicious apps. Third-party app sites help spread malicious software as well.

Common sense and a discerning eye can help keep your device safe. If you want to avoid malicious apps, get new software from trusted sources like the Google Play store or Amazon’s Android app store â€" and avoid installing any apps from random third-party sites.

Although it does not make developers go through a formal approval process when submitting new apps, Google does automatically scan apps that are added to its Google Play store for malware. The company has also withdrawn bad apps that have wormed their way into the store.

Sticking with apps from well-known developers or apps that have been professionally reviewed can help keep you away from the junk and scam programs that may have made it into the store. (Badly written or spammy apps are a universal problem and Apple’s App Store has plenty of those, too.)

Even when shopping in the Google Play store, you should thoroughly check out an app before installing it. Be wary of apps that seem to have a lot of downloads and high ratings â€" but a minimal amount of written reviews â€" since a scammer may be trying to get attention. You can also check the app’s Permissions tab on the Google Play page to see what parts of your Android phone or tablet it wants to use, and then avoid apps that look too invasive.

If you like to visit third-party app sites, you may want to consider installing mobile security software from a reliable company. Some apps, like Lookout or F-Secure, also help track lost phones and remotely wipe data â€" because a missing or stolen device may be more of a security problem than malware for many people anyway.



Q&A: Avoiding Mobile Malware

Q.

Why is Android such a big target for malware, and how can I tell if an app may be suspect before I install it?

A.

Android has become the dominant mobile operating system around the world, and like Windows before it, malware writers typically target the most commonly used platform in hopes of snaring the most victims. Not all phones can run the latest, more secure versions of the Android system, which can make them more vulnerable to malicious apps. Third-party app sites help spread malicious software as well.

Common sense and a discerning eye can help keep your device safe. If you want to avoid malicious apps, get new software from trusted sources like the Google Play store or Amazon’s Android app store â€" and avoid installing any apps from random third-party sites.

Although it does not make developers go through a formal approval process when submitting new apps, Google does automatically scan apps that are added to its Google Play store for malware. The company has also withdrawn bad apps that have wormed their way into the store.

Sticking with apps from well-known developers or apps that have been professionally reviewed can help keep you away from the junk and scam programs that may have made it into the store. (Badly written or spammy apps are a universal problem and Apple’s App Store has plenty of those, too.)

Even when shopping in the Google Play store, you should thoroughly check out an app before installing it. Be wary of apps that seem to have a lot of downloads and high ratings â€" but a minimal amount of written reviews â€" since a scammer may be trying to get attention. You can also check the app’s Permissions tab on the Google Play page to see what parts of your Android phone or tablet it wants to use, and then avoid apps that look too invasive.

If you like to visit third-party app sites, you may want to consider installing mobile security software from a reliable company. Some apps, like Lookout or F-Secure, also help track lost phones and remotely wipe data â€" because a missing or stolen device may be more of a security problem than malware for many people anyway.