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Gallup Identifies Factors That Led to Its G.O.P. Skew in November

The Gallup Organization has identified a series of factors that contributed to its overestimation of support for Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential election, including problems with its survey sample and methodology, according to an in-depth analysis of its procedures released Tuesday.

Gallup was widely criticized about the results of its pre-election polls, and the review found that the way likely voters were defined, the telephone numbers that were called as well as their geographic distribution, and how people were asked about their race adversely affected Gallup’s presidential surveys.

At a meeting of journalists and pollsters on Tuesday, Frank Newport, the editor in chief of Gallup, outlined the testing the company had done with assistance from methodologists at the University of Michigan, which is known for its survey research program. Mr. Newport conceded that “there is something going on in the industry, and Gallup was at the bottom of that” in the 2012 election. Gallup has said that it is committed to transparency as the organization continues to test the way it conducts polls.

The review, led by Mr. Newport and Michael Traugott of the University of Michigan, was conducted by a team of statisticians, methodologists and analysts from Gallup, assisted by outside consultants. After identifying more than 20 possible elements that could have been related to the Republican skew in Gallup’s polls, the team isolated four factors as the likely causes.

Gallup’s model in identify those most likely to vote â€" a series of seven questions â€" seemed to have failed in 2012, and the organization is re-evaluating its formula for ranking voters who will turn out.

Just as technology has changed the way campaigns work, it has altered the way survey researchers gather data. A change in the way that Gallup called respondents on land lines may have been a contributing factor that led to its sample to be older and more Republican. Half of their respondents, however, were reached on cellphones â€" a proportion that is at or above industry standards.

In addition, there were too many respondents from certain time zones. In the South and the Midwest, there were more respondents from the Central Time Zone, which tends to be more Republican, than the Eastern Time Zone, which skews Democratic.

Finally, the way Gallup asked callers about their race overrepresented some groups.

Individually, none of the four problems is considered to have been a significant factor in the results, but taken together, they helped lead to an overestimation of Mr. Romney’s share of the vote. Gallup plans to use the governor’s races this fall in New Jersey and Virginia to test new election polling methods.

“We hope to be at the accurate end of the spectrum in the future rather than the uncomfortable position that Gallup was in last year,” Mr. Newton said.



Obama’s Appeals Court Nominees

President Obama took the step of nominating three people at once to the Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, a key federal court, in a challenge to Republicans who have blocked earlier nominations.

His choices â€" Patricia Ann Millett, Cornelia T.L. Pillard and Robert L. Wilkins â€" share an elite pedigree: a law degree from Harvard. Since law school, their careers have followed different tracks, but they are all distinguished by efforts to bridge the gaps faced by their respective demographic groups. Ms. Millet has broken ground in the legal world for women, while Ms. Pillard has made workplace gender discrimination a signature cause. As a young lawyer, Mr. Wilkins became the face of a prominent racial-profiling lawsuit.

A bit more on their backgrounds, legal and political, along with hints about how they would approach the bench.

Patricia Ann Millett
Ms. Millett, 49, has argued more cases before the Supreme Court than any other woman. She made a number of appearances during a stint as an assistant solicitor general in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and now as the top of Akin Gump’s appellate and Supreme Court practices. Ms. Millett was named one of Washington’s 100 most powerful women by Washingtonian magazine in 2011.

She is known for taking cases that span the political spectrum. Last year, she helped Starbucks defend its rule banning workers from wearing more than one pro-union button, and she successfully argued before the Supreme Court that a man, Robert J. Stevens, should not be convicted of animal cruelty charges because he sold dogfighting videos.

“Whatever a person’s politics, lawyers have to understand that we are, for most people, the gateway for them to have access to the third branch of government,” Ms. Millett said in an interview with Law360.

As for the role of judges, Ms. Millett mused on Chief Justice John G. Roberts’s decision to uphold the health care overhaul in an interview with a legal trade publication, Metropolitan Corporate Counsel:

I think the chief justice ruled exactly what he firmly believed in his heart of hearts was the right constitutional answer. He was pretty clear that he might well disagree with the President on policy, but voting on policy is not the job of a Supreme Court justice. The chief justice understood that, while the Court has the duty to enforce the Constitution and to make sure that new laws stay within constitutional bounds, the unelected Supreme Court should be very reluctant to overturn newly enacted legislation and should look for every possible source of constitutional authority for the law. He said that how a provision is labeled â€" “penalty” instead of “tax” â€" is not what matters most to the Constitution. The Constitution looks at substance over form. And that is a good thing.

Ms. Millett’s political leanings are a bit more apparent in her campaign contributions: $52,600 to Democratic candidates and committees, including the president’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns.

When SCOTUSblog asked which case she would argue if she could choose any throughout history, Ms. Millett chose the 1803 case that essentially defined the court’s role: “Marbury v. Madison, of course,” she said. ”Just because if women had broken into the Supreme Court bar back then, we’d dominate it by now!”

Cornelia Pillard

Known as Nina, Ms. Pillard, 52, is a Georgetown professor perhaps best known for her work on gender discrimination and workplace issues. In 1996, she argued the case that opened the Virginia Military Institute to women, and in a 2003 argument, Nevada Department of Social Services. v. Hibbs, she defended the Family Medical Leave Act against a constitutional challenge.

In that case, Ms. Pillard represented a male employee of the state of Nevada who was fired when he tried to take unpaid leave beyond a federally mandated minimum to care for his sick wife. During oral arguments, she cited statistics showing that women are offered more time off than men, and this can hurt their careers. Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, in a decision siding with her client, wrote that “mutually reinforcing stereotypes” of women as primary caregivers and men as lacking domestic responsibility “create a self-fulfilling cycle of discrimination.”

It’s an idea central in “Against the New Maternalism,” a 2011 paper Ms. Pillard wrote with Naomi Mezey, a colleague at Georgetown Law School. This “celebration of mothers’ domesticity and their role as the default parent,” â€" exemplified by “mommy blogs” and Sarah Palin’s “mama grizzlies” â€" excludes “men, whether willing or reluctant, from engaged parenting’s benefits and responsibilities,” and thus undermines gender equality on a practical level.

At Georgetown, Ms. Pillard directs the Supreme Court Institute, which helps lawyers prepare to deliver arguments to the justices. She was a deputy assistant attorney general in the Office of Legal Counsel and an assistant to the solicitor general in the Clinton administration.

Ms. Pillard is married to another Georgetown Law professor: David Cole, who is also the legal affairs correspondent for The Nation, a liberal magazine. She has donated $8,500 to Democrats, including Mr. Obama’s presidential campaigns.

Robert L. Wilkins

Mr. Wilkins, 49, currently sits on the United States District Court in Washington. But before that, he was a public defender â€" and a very public plaintiff.

Mr. Wilkins was driving with some relatives through the mountains of western Maryland in 1992 when state troopers pulled him over for speeding in his rented red Cadillac. When he refused to let them search the car for drugs, the troopers made the family wait in the car, in the rain, until drug-sniffing dogs arrived. The dogs found nothing, and Mr. Wilkins sued.

“I was determined to do something about this because I don’t consider myself a victim; I consider myself a warrior,” he later told reporters.

Though he received a $95,000 settlement from the Maryland State Police in 1995, his case prompted a series of class-action legal battles over racial profiling that are still being waged.

Mr. Wilkins was confirmed as a federal judge in 2010, after an eclectic career. He earned an undergraduate degree in chemical engineering before graduating from Harvard Law School. He worked as a public defender in Washington for 12 years, but later transitioned to defending white-collar and corporate clients at the firm Venable LLP.

In 2008, Legal Times named him one of the 90 Greatest Lawyers of the Last 30 Years, but now he presides over civil and criminal trials in federal court. Mr. Wilkins recently offered to recuse himself in the case that sent Jesse Jackson Jr. to prison for campaign finance violations, citing work as a college student on Jesse Jackson Sr.’s 1988 presidential campaign. The defense declined the offer.

Mr. Wilkins also helped drive the creation of the National Museum of African American History and Culture at the Smithsonian.

Over the years, he has donated $3,352 to Venable’s PAC, which splits its money between Republicans and Democrats. But his remaining $8,850 in political contributions have gone to Democratic candidates and committees, including $250 in 2003 to a Senate candidate named Barack Obama.



Add Google’s Street View to Apple Maps

Comparing a location in Google Maps and in the Streets app, demonstrating that Streets has higher resolution. Comparing a location in Google Maps and in the Streets app, demonstrating that Streets has higher resolution.

One of the major complaints about Apple Maps (aside from its odd inaccuracies) is that it lacks anything like Google’s Street View, which allows a user to see photographic images of the location being sought.

To add Street View capability to an Apple map, the Streets app can help.

Streets uses Google’s map data, but improves a bit on Google’s presentation. For reasons that even a spokesman from the Streets designer FutureTap could not explain, the Streets app shows the Street View in higher resolution than Google does. A user can zoom in on - and read - signs that would be undecipherable in Google’s own Street View. The app is 99 cents through July, then the price will rise to $1.99.

Here is how to bring Street View images into Apple’s Maps.

In Apple Maps, look up a location or drop a pin on screen by holding a finger on a destination.

Touch the pin and a little banner appears. On the right there is a blue circle with an arrow. Touch that to go to the location screen. Then touch either “directions to here” or “directions from here.”

At the top of the next screen, icons appear for the mode of travel like driving, walking or taking public transportation. Touch the bus icon for public transportation. It is the only screen that will provide access to Street View. Then press route.

A screen appears that shows all the apps that could provide a route. Choose Streets to go to the Streets app and to the Street View of the selected location.

To return to Apple Maps, touch the map icon in the upper left.

Why not just skip Apple Maps altogether and use Google or Streets? Some iPhone apps only link to Apple Maps - for example, if you get directions from your contacts file or you ask Siri to find a location. In those instances, this little trick with Streets can be a handy shortcut.



Add Google’s Street View to Apple Maps

Comparing a location in Google Maps and in the Streets app, demonstrating that Streets has higher resolution. Comparing a location in Google Maps and in the Streets app, demonstrating that Streets has higher resolution.

One of the major complaints about Apple Maps (aside from its odd inaccuracies) is that it lacks anything like Google’s Street View, which allows a user to see photographic images of the location being sought.

To add Street View capability to an Apple map, the Streets app can help.

Streets uses Google’s map data, but improves a bit on Google’s presentation. For reasons that even a spokesman from the Streets designer FutureTap could not explain, the Streets app shows the Street View in higher resolution than Google does. A user can zoom in on - and read - signs that would be undecipherable in Google’s own Street View. The app is 99 cents through July, then the price will rise to $1.99.

Here is how to bring Street View images into Apple’s Maps.

In Apple Maps, look up a location or drop a pin on screen by holding a finger on a destination.

Touch the pin and a little banner appears. On the right there is a blue circle with an arrow. Touch that to go to the location screen. Then touch either “directions to here” or “directions from here.”

At the top of the next screen, icons appear for the mode of travel like driving, walking or taking public transportation. Touch the bus icon for public transportation. It is the only screen that will provide access to Street View. Then press route.

A screen appears that shows all the apps that could provide a route. Choose Streets to go to the Streets app and to the Street View of the selected location.

To return to Apple Maps, touch the map icon in the upper left.

Why not just skip Apple Maps altogether and use Google or Streets? Some iPhone apps only link to Apple Maps - for example, if you get directions from your contacts file or you ask Siri to find a location. In those instances, this little trick with Streets can be a handy shortcut.



Q&A: Backing Up Photos in the Cloud

Q.

I take a lot of photos with my smartphone but don’t back them up. What are some options that don’t include having to connect the phone to a computer with a USB cable?

A.

Phones running the Android, iOS or Windows Phone operating systems typically have backup options and apps designed specifically to work with their corresponding cloud services, Google, Apple and Microsoft. If your phone is on a monthly plan with data limits, check that the automatic backup option you choose kicks in only when you are connected to a Wi-Fi network.

Backup options are plentiful. Among them, Android and iPhone phone users can automatically back up photos to a private album within their Google+ accounts. The free Google Drive app can be used to manually mark pictures for online backup; instructions for Android owners are online, as are steps for iPhone and iPad users.

For those with both an iPhone and an iCloud account from Apple, the Photo Stream feature can automatically upload copies of photos from the phone to the Web, computer and other devices. Windows Phone owners can automatically back up their pictures to Microsoft’s free SkyDrive service, as the Windows Phone Blog explains.

Other services that work on multiple platforms include the Camera Upload feature from the Dropbox online storage service and SugarSync’s mobile wireless backup apps and services. Smartphones have plenty of other backup options, like DoubleTwist AirSync for Android in the Google Play store. Read a program’s reviews to make sure it is worth your time.



Q&A: Backing Up Photos in the Cloud

Q.

I take a lot of photos with my smartphone but don’t back them up. What are some options that don’t include having to connect the phone to a computer with a USB cable?

A.

Phones running the Android, iOS or Windows Phone operating systems typically have backup options and apps designed specifically to work with their corresponding cloud services, Google, Apple and Microsoft. If your phone is on a monthly plan with data limits, check that the automatic backup option you choose kicks in only when you are connected to a Wi-Fi network.

Backup options are plentiful. Among them, Android and iPhone phone users can automatically back up photos to a private album within their Google+ accounts. The free Google Drive app can be used to manually mark pictures for online backup; instructions for Android owners are online, as are steps for iPhone and iPad users.

For those with both an iPhone and an iCloud account from Apple, the Photo Stream feature can automatically upload copies of photos from the phone to the Web, computer and other devices. Windows Phone owners can automatically back up their pictures to Microsoft’s free SkyDrive service, as the Windows Phone Blog explains.

Other services that work on multiple platforms include the Camera Upload feature from the Dropbox online storage service and SugarSync’s mobile wireless backup apps and services. Smartphones have plenty of other backup options, like DoubleTwist AirSync for Android in the Google Play store. Read a program’s reviews to make sure it is worth your time.



The Early Word: A Hard Place

In Today’s Times

  • The death of Senator Frank R. Lautenberg on Monday puts Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey in a difficult spot: having to choose between raising his party’s fortunes in Washington and furthering his own political ambitions at home, David M. Halbfinger, Jeremy W. Peters and Kate Zernike write.
  • President Obama will nominate three candidates on Tuesday to fill the remaining vacancies on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, which is often described as the second most powerful court in the country, Michael D. Shear reports.  By nominating three judges at once, the president is hoping to put pressure on Senate Republicans to confirm them.
  • Wide racial disparities have been found nationwide in marijuana law enforcement, with advocates for legalization criticizing the Obama administration for its aggressive approach on the drug, Ian Urbina reports. In the president’s first three years in office, the arrest rate for marijuana possession was about 5 percent higher than the average rate under George W. Bush.
  • Representative Dave Camp, a Michigan Republican and chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, is trying to turn the recent scandal surrounding the Internal Revenue Service into an opportunity to tackle tax reform, not to scar the Obama administration, Jonathan Weisman reports.

Around the Web

  • Some Californians - the ones who don’t have thousands of dollars to spend on a fund-raising ticket - are annoyed at President Obama’s lack of public events in the state, The San Francisco Chronicle reports. He has not attended a free event for the public in Northern California since before he first won the White House in 2008.
  • Tornadoes that devastated parts of Oklahoma and Missouri may have been the impetus for funding changes at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, allowing it to cancel sequester furloughs for 12,000 employees, The Washington Post reports.

Happenings in Washington

  • President Obama will participate in a meeting with President Sebastián Piñera of Chile, along with Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
  • Later, Mr. Obama will visit wounded soldiers at Walter Reed National Military Medical Center.