Total Pageviews

Tim Scott to Be Named for South Carolina Senate Seat, Republicans Say

In Today's Times

  • President Obama traveled to Newtown, Conn., on Sunday to offer words of solace to the bereaved town, and to chide the nation for not having done enough to prevent mass shootings like the one that left 28 people there dead, 20 of them children, Mark Landler and Peter Baker report.
  • Much of the groundwork for the quick victory of Michigan's “right-to-work” legislation, which bans mandatory union payments, was laid in the months and years before it passed. A loose network of donors, strategists and conservative political groups bet that the dollars invested in local elections would yield concrete policy victories that could not be had in Washington, Nicholas Confessore and Monica Davey r eport.
  • Mr. Obama is leaning strongly toward naming Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state, David E. Sanger reports. But the announcement will be delayed because of the Connecticut school shooting and what one official called “some discomfort” with the idea of Mr. Obama's announcing a national security team in which the top posts are almost exclusively held by white men.
  • The Democratic Party in California now holds a supermajority in the Legislature, giving it a chance to lock in long-term control, but also raising concerns that legislative overreach could make the party's reign brief, Adam Nagourney writes.
  • Mr. Obama and Speaker John A. Boehner expressed new optimism on Sunday that a deal to avert the fiscal crisis could be reached this week, Jonathan Weisman and Jackie Calmes write. Mr. Boehner's latest offer to allow tax rates to rise on incomes over $1 million signaled that both teams could put aside their philosophical arguments and begin wrangling over price.

Around the Web

  • Ron Weiser, the finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, was caught on video mocking voters in Detroit, The Associated Press reports.

Happenings in Washington

  •  Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack will conduct a live Virtual Office Hours session on Twitter at 3:30 p.m.
  • A special performance f rom the musical “Wicked” will mark the donation and display of the Elphaba costume at the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History.


Some Unlikely Democrats Join in Push for New Gun Laws

Representative Tim Scott spoke at the Republican National Convention in August.Mark Wilson/Getty Images Representative Tim Scott spoke at the Republican National Convention in August.

10:17 a.m. | Updated Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina has chosen Representative Tim Scott to replace Jim DeMint in the United States Senate, according to three Republican officials. The move will make Mr. Scott the first black senator from the South since the late 19th century.

The governor will make the announcement at noon at the State House in Columbia. She began informing the roster of finalists on Monday morning about her decision to go with Mr. Scott, who was the preferred candidate of many conservative leaders and groups in Washington.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, three Republican officials familiar with the process confirmed to The New York Times the decision to select Mr. Scott. Aides to the governor declined to comment before the noon announcement.

Ms. Haley seriously considered a number of potential contenders, particularly Jenny Sanford, the ex-wife of former Gov. Mark Sanford, who supported Ms. Haley in her race two years ago. But in choosing Mr. Scott, she selected a lawmaker with a strong conservative voting record during his two years in Congress.

Mr. Scott, 47, also offers a unique story and background, one that is in scant supply in the Republican Party right now. Raised by a single mother, he was, by his account, a lost child who struggled with school and with life until a Chick-fil-A franchise owner took him on as a protégé and schooled him in conservative principles.

“Coming from a single-parent household and almost flunking out of high school,” Mr. Scott said in 2010, during his bid for the House, “my hope is I will take that experience and help people bring out the best that they can be.”

Although the Republicans have far fewer minorities and women in Congress than the Democrat s, the party, with Monday's announcement, will now be able to claim the only current black member of the Senate, as well as two of the three Latinos.

Mr. Scott will become South Carolina's first black senator, and the first black Republican in the Senate since Edward Brooke of Massachusetts left in 1979. Over all, he will be the seventh black senator, and the chamber's fourth black Republican.

Mr. DeMint announced this month that he would retire two years into his second Senate term to run the Heritage Foundation, a conservative research group based in Washington. In Mr. Scott, Ms. Haley has chosen a lawmaker with very similar views to Mr. DeMint on all matters of public policy, from taxes to guns to social issues.

Mr. Scott, who lives in Charleston, will no doubt be missed among many of his House Republican colleagues. “There is not a kinder, more humble, sweet-spirited person,” Representative Trey Gowdy, one of Mr. Scott's freshman colleagues from South Carolina, who was also considered for the job, said in an interview last week. “That is somewhat antithetical to what you'd expect at this level of politics.”

Besides Ms. Sanford and Mr. Gowdy, Mr. Scott bested several other finalists, including Henry McMaster, a former attorney general, and Catherine Templeton, the state health agency director. A rush to fill Mr. Scott's seat will now ensue, with various contenders already licking their chops.



Debt Reckoning: Updates on the Fiscal Deadline


Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

3:19 p.m. | Updated Congressional Democrats showed signs on Monday of a more aggressive push on gun control in the wake of the Newtown killings, while Republicans and gun rights advocates remained largely silent on policy matters.

Joe Manchin III, the pro-gun-rights West Virginia senator who drew attention in 2010 after running a commercial that showed him firing a rifle at an environmental bill, sai d that “everything should be on the table” as gun control is debated in the coming weeks and months.

Representative John Yarmuth, a moderate Democrat from Kentucky, said he finally felt compelled to speak out on an issue that has been untouchable for many elected officials.

“I have been largely silent on the issue of gun violence over the past six years, and I am now as sorry for that as I am for what happened to the families who lost so much in this most recent, but sadly not isolated, tragedy,” Mr. Yarmuth said in a statement. “The National Rifle Association has spent untold millions of dollars instilling fear in our citizens and our politicians.”

He added, “I believe it is more rational to fear guns far more than the illusory political power of the N.R.A.”

And in a Twitter message sent out before a television appearance, Senator Mark Warner of Virginia called the episode a “game changer.”

The National Rifle Association has been largely silent since the shootings on Friday morning. On Monday, the home page of its Web site contained a blog post from Nov. 27, titled “More Guns, Less Crime in Virginia,” and the association's Twitter account, which is normally active, has not sent a message since Friday.

It remains unclear whether any new legislation is likely to pass, especially given that Congress remains focused on budget matters for the time being. President Obama said at a memorial service that he planned to take executive action to reduce shootings, although he has not yet specified what that action might be.

Remarks on Monday from the two leaders of the Senate, Harry Reid, Democrat of Nevada, and Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky, underscored how difficult it will be to challenge the status quo. Both men, though far apart ideologically on most political issues, come from states where gun rights are especially cherished. And both made rather muted remarks on Monday.

Speaking from the floor of the Senate, Mr. Reid said the country was failing to keep people safe, though he did not go as far as his colleagues in calling for new laws. “As President Obama said last night, no one law can erase evil. No policy can prevent a determined madman from committing a senseless act of violence,” he said. “But we need to accept the reality that we are not doing enough to protect our citizens.”

Mr. McConnell entirely sidestepped the question of gun control, limiting his statement only to expressions of sadness and sympathy. “So we stand with the people of Newtown today and in the days ahead,” he said. “We can do nothing to lessen their anguish, but we can let them know that we mourn with them, that we share a tiny part of their burden in our own hearts. ”

But the tone of the political debate does seem to have shifted, at least temporarily, after the shootings, which left 27 people dead, including 20 children.

Mr. Manchin, a Democrat and an avid hunter with an “A” rating from the National Rifle Association, indicated that he supported re-evaluating laws that permit people to have clips that hold dozens of rounds of ammunition and to own assault rifles.

“I don't know anybody in the sporting or hunting arena that goes out with an assault rifle,” Mr. Manchin said, speaking on the MSNBC program “Morning Joe.”

“I don't know anybody who needs 30 rounds in a clip to go hunting. I mean, these are things that need to be talked about,” he added.

While Mr. Manchin stopped short of saying what, if any, changes to gun laws he would support, his words amounted to one of the strongest sign als yet that in the aftermath of the school massacre in Newtown, Conn., longtime gun rights supporters are taking a more measured approach to Second Amendment issues.

Gun control has been something of a third rail for many lawmakers, including Mr. Obama, who critics say has not pushed for any meaningful reforms. Any effort to rewrite gun laws in Congress would certainly be a complicated and difficult task.

But, as Mr. Manchin said on Monday, the Newtown shooting has caused many like him to pause and rethink the issue.

“Millions and millions of people are proud gun owners, and they do it responsibly,” he said. “Seeing the massacre of so many innocent children, it's changed â€" it's changed America. We've never seen this happen.”

The National Rifle Association's political fund has praised Mr. Manchin for taking various steps to pr otect gun owners, like signing a law prohibiting the confiscating of guns during a state of emergency while he was governor of West Virginia.

In his comments on Monday, Mr. Manchin was careful to note that the dialogue would have to take place in a way that reassured the N.R.A. and others that their right to bear arms was not in jeopardy. He said he would be approaching the N.R.A. to discuss the issue soon.

“I'll go over and sit down with them and say, ‘How can we take the dialogue to a different level?'” he said. “How can we sit down and make sure that we're moving and not be afraid that someone's going to attack our freedoms and our rights?”

Still, other prominent Democrats went further, calling outright for tougher laws.

Senator Richard Durbin of Illinois, who is the chairman of a subcommittee on the Constitution and civil rights, said that he would hold hearings on Second Amendment rights. And Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, who was with the San Francisco city supervisor Harvey Milk in 1978 as he lay dying from an assassin's bullet, said she would introduce legislation that would ban the sale and possession of large clips of ammunition and strips that hold more than 10 bullets.

Mr. Durbin wrote an article published by The Chicago Tribune on Monday in which he argued for new limits on weapons ownership.

“What will it take?” Mr. Durbin wrote, listing one by one the mass shootings that have occurred in the United States over the past few years. “What it will take is for the majority of Americans, and the majority of thoughtful gun owners and hunters, to agree that there must be reasonable limits on gun ownership and weapons.”

With passions running high after the Newtown massacre, Democrats said they anticipated a call from gun rights advocates to resist emotional calls to rewr ite gun laws. And advocates for changes are certain to face a tough battle as they run up against one of Washington's most powerful and well-financed lobbies.

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York held a news conference on Monday with dozens of people who had lost loved ones to gun violence, at which he unveiled a video campaign and Web site demanding that Mr. Obama and Congress do something about guns. He gave a very specific list of demands, both for legislation and executive action, and repeatedly called out Mr. Obama for doing too little on the issue.

Top New York Democrats have also been vocal the need for tougher federal regulation of firearms. In Albany, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said he would make several gun policy proposals in his state of the state address next month. The governor, who was a strong advocate for gun control as secretary of housing and urban development in the Clinton administration, said that the state's assault weapons ban has multiple loo pholes that need to be addressed, but that action really needs to happen at the federal level.

Senator Charles E. Schumer of New York called for “a new paradigm” in the gun control debate and cautioned that proponents of tighter regulation needed to be mindful of the concerns of responsible gun owners as they pursued their cause, which has so often fallen short.

“First, those of us who are pro-gun-control have to admit that there is a Second Amendment right to bear arms,” he said. And the other side, he added, was being counterproductive by claiming “the left wants to take that hunting rifle your Uncle Tommy gave you when you were 15.”

Mr. Schumer was speaking Sunday on “Face the Nation” on CBS. Its host, Bob Schieffer, noted that he had invited Republican members of the Senate Judiciary Committee on the program to respond, but that all of them had declined.

Politicians, lobbyists and policy experts continued on Monday to discuss the p rospect of new limitations on firearms, with stronger support and even some indications of softening opposition to gun control in the aftermath of the mass killing.

Joe Scarborough, the host of “Morning Joe” and a former Republican congressman from Florida who highlighted his support of gun rights, also made comments on the program calling for action from Washington on several fronts.

“The violence we see spreading from shopping malls in Oregon, to movie theaters in Colorado, to college campuses in Virginia, to elementary schools in Connecticut, is being spawned by the toxic view of a violent popular culture, a growing mental health crisis and the proliferation of combat-style weapons,” Mr. Scarborough said.

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, an independent from Connecticut who is about to leave Congress, was among those calling for restrictions on assault weapons, a position favored by many Democrats. He is also calling for a commission to look broadly a t the problem of gun violence and its causes.

Mr. Lieberman repeated his views that assault weapons “were weapons created by the U.S. military for use in war.”

“When it comes to mental health, this is complicated,” he continued. “We've got to find a way to create a society in which those closest to people in trouble, mentally, acknowledge that” and help them secure assistance.

As for violence in the entertainment and video game industry, which Mr. Lieberman has also said may contribute to a culture of violence, he said, “I think we really do have to reopen the conversation and go back and ask ourselves, ‘Is there more we can do?'”

John H. Cushman Jr. contributed reporting from Washington. Thomas Kaplan and Danny Hakim contributed reporting from Albany. Michael M. Grynbaum contributed reporting from New York.

A message addressed to President Obama was among the stuffed toys at a makeshift shrine to the victims of the elementary school shooting in Newtown, Conn., on Monday.Emmanuel Dunand/Agence France-Presse - Getty Images A message addressed to President Obama was among the stuffed toys at a makeshift shrine to the victims of the elementary school shooting in Newtown, Conn., on Monday.


Bill Clinton Documentary, Directed by Scorsese, Coming to HBO

Bill Clinton, a day before a rally with President Obama in Concord, N.H.Doug Mills/The New York Times Bill Clinton, a day before a rally with President Obama in Concord, N.H.

As a director of nonfiction features, Martin Scorsese has chronicled artists like the Band and George Harrison. Now, in his next documentary film, he will take on the life of a famous saxophonist, albeit one who is better known for his work in other spheres of American life.

Bill Clinton will be the subject of the new film. Mr. Scorsese is directing and pro ducing it for HBO with Mr. Clinton's full cooperation, the cable channel said on Monday. No title or premiere date for the project was immediately announced, but in a statement Mr. Scorsese described Mr. Clinton as “a towering figure who remains a major voice in world issues” and who “continues to shape the political dialogue both here and around the world.” Mr. Scorsese added, “Through intimate conversations, I hope to provide greater insight into this transcendent figure.”

Mr. Clinton said in a statement: “I am pleased that legendary director Martin Scorsese and HBO have agreed to do this film. I look forward to sharing my perspective on my years as President, and my work in the years since, with HBO's audience.”

Mr. Scorsese, whose fictional films include “Taxi Driver” and “The Departed,” has also worked with HBO on documentaries like “George Harrison: Living in the Material World” and “Public Speaking,” about the author Fran Le bowitz. He is also an executive producer of the cable channel's period crime drama “Boardwalk Empire.”



In Recent Years, a Drop in Public Support for Gun Control Laws

Support for gun control measures has steadily dropped over the last decade, and previous mass shootings had little effect on public opinion about gun laws. It is too early to tell if the age and the number of the victims in the killings in Newtown, Conn., will now have an impact on attitudes toward gun control.

Throughout much of the 1990s and the last decade, a solid majority of Americans said they supported stricter gun control laws. But the percentage has dropped sharply in the last several years, according to polls by both the Pew Research Center and Gallup, and the country is now more evenly divided.

The reasons for the shift are not fully clear, though much of it followed President Obama's election in 2008.

The recent spate of mass shootings, with 6 of the country's 12 deadliest shootings having occurred since 2007, has not appeared to increase support for stricter gun laws.

After the July 20 shootings in a movie theater in Colorado, Pew asked whether it was more important to protect the right of Americans to own guns or to control gun ownership. Forty-seven percent of respondents favored protecting the right to own guns, while 46 percent favored gun control.  This was essentially unchanged from the results of a poll conducted in April 2011.

There was no increase in support for gun control in January 2011 after the shooting in Tucson in which Representative Gabrielle Giffords was wounded or after a mass murder at Virginia Tech in April 2007.

The question of gun control divides along lines of party, race and gender. About 70 percent of Republicans favor gun rights, while the same number of Democrats supports gun control, according to the July Pew poll. Whites are more likely to say it is more important to protect gun ownership; blacks overwhelmingly back gun control. And men tend to give gun rights more importance, while women favor controlling gun ownership.

There is greater support for some specific changes. In August, a CNN/ORC International poll asked about semiautomatic weapons and high-capacity ammunition clips.  Nearly 6 in 10 of those surveyed would outlaw the manufacture, sale and possession of semiautomatic assault guns, such as AK-47s; a similar number would ban the sale and possession of high-capacity or extended ammunition clips, which allow some guns to shoot more than 10 rounds before they need to be reloaded.

The results of that poll, taken in the weeks after the 12 gunshot fatalities at a movie theater in Aurora, Colo., and six deaths at a Sikh temple in Oak Creek, Wis., were essentially unchanged from the findings of a poll taken in January 2011, after the shooting in Tucson, which resulted in 6 deaths and the serious injury to Ms. Giffords.

The CNN poll conducted in August also found that more than 9 in 10 of respondents favor background checks and preventing convicted felons and people with mental health problems from owning guns. Three-quarters approve of registering firearms with local governments, but more than half oppose limiting the number of guns any individual can own.

The Gallup Poll has not asked its gun control questions since last year. At that time, it found its lowest support for making stricter the law s covering the sale of firearms, as well as the lowest number of Americans in favor of banning the possession of handguns to non-law enforcement personnel. Gallup's data stretched back to 1990.

In October 2011, 43 percent said that laws dealing with the sale of firearms should be made more strict; 44 percent said the laws should remain as they are now. Only 11 percent favored more lenient laws. As recently as 2007, a majority supported stricter legislation regarding guns, and when the question was first asked in 1990, 78 percent wanted to see more rigorous gun laws.

At the same time, 73 percent of those surveyed opposed a law that would allow only police and other authorized people to possess a handgun, while 26 favored such a ban.  When Gallup first asked the question in 1959, 60 percent supported this type of gun control, but since 1975, a majority has opposed it.

In the same poll, nearly half of adults reported having a gun in their home or elsewhere on their property. Forty-seven percent of all adults said they or someone in their household owned a gun, including a majority of men, residents of the Midwest and the South, Republicans and those with no college education.

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: December 17, 2012

A previous version of this story transposed the percentage of people who favored more rigorous gun laws with the percentage of people who sought more lenient laws. For ty-three percent said that laws dealing with the sale of firearms should be made more strict and 11 percent favored more lenient laws.



Poll Conducted After Shooting Shows More Support for Stricter Gun Laws

A CBS News poll conducted in the aftermath of the shootings at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn., finds a significant increase in the number of Americans supporting stricter gun control laws.

Two other polls showed that far more people say the school shootings reflect broader societal problems rather than the isolated act of a troubled individual. That was not the case in Pew polls conducted after some other recent shootings.

Fifty-two percent said so in the ABC News/Washington Post poll and 47 percent in the Pew survey, up from 24 percent after the Aurora, Colo., shooting in July and 31 percent after the one in Tucson in January 2011 that killed six people and seriously injured Representative Gabrie lle Giffords. Views today are more similar to those after the 2007 shootings at Virginia Tech, when 46 percent felt the incident reflected broader problems in American society.

The CBS News poll, conducted Dec. 14 to 16, asked if “gun control laws should be made more strict, less strict or kept as they are now.” Fifty-seven percent of respondents say they should be made more strict, up significantly from 39 percent in a CBS News poll in April. Three in 10 in the latest poll say laws should be kept as they are now (41 percent in April said they should be kept as they are), while 9 percent say they should be made less strict.

At the same time however, many Americans are dubious that stricter laws would have helped prevent Friday's shootings. Just over 4 in 10 say they would have done a lot (26 percent) or a little (16 percent) to prevent the violence. Half of respondents say stricter gun laws would have had no effect.

Nearly as many Americans said stricter laws would have prevented the shootings in Tucson, but more than half said so after the 2007 shootings at Virginia Tech.

Partisanship is a factor in views of gun control laws. More than three-quarters of Democrats support stricter laws. That drops to just under half of independents and fewer than 4 in 10 Republicans. Democrats are far more likely than others to say stricter laws would have helped prevent the shootings.

In a somewhat differently worded question on gun control in the ABC/Post poll, also conducted Dec. 14 to 16, respondents were asked if they “favor or oppose stricter gun control laws in this country.” The poll finds 54 percent in favor of stricter laws, little changed from polls conducted by those organizations in the last few years.

The ABC/Post poll finds increased intensity of sentiment on the side of supporters of stricter gun control laws. Forty-four percent are strongly in favor of stricter laws, whi le 32 percent are strongly opposed â€" the largest gap between the two in ABC/Post polls since 2007.

The poll also finds just over half of the public, 52 percent, supporting a ban on semiautomatic handguns and 59 percent supporting a ban on high-capacity ammunition clips. But banning the sale of handguns, except to law enforcement officers, is opposed by 71 percent.



A Closer Look at the Deficit

WASHINGTON - To Democrats, Republican resistance to raising tax rates on affluent Americans seems not only stubborn, but also befuddling and self-defeating.

Public opinion strongly favors it. President Obama just won re-election campaigning more strongly on the tax issue than on any other. Federal revenue as a share of the economy is near a 60-year low. Washington faces a $1 trillion annual deficit.

Yet even as some party leaders and intellectuals urge them to concede the point, most rank-and-file House Republicans refuse. That is why Speaker John A. Boehner has moved so gingerly, finally offering late last week to raise rates only on incomes of $1 million or more, despite calls from Senate Republicans for a deeper concession.Read More     

The reasons run deep in the structure of 21st-century American politics, and the modern Republican Party.

The national exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the November election illustrates how polarization by party and ideology has estranged the coalitions behind Mr. Obama and Mr. Boehner in their stalled negotiations.

Seven of 10 Obama voters said government should be doing more to solve problems. Eight in 10 voters said tax rates should rise. (Two-thirds said tax rates should rise for incomes over $250,000, and another 13 percent said taxes should go up for everyone.) By contrast, 8 in 10 voters who backed the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, said government already did too much. A 54 percent majority said no one's tax rates should rise.

Those national numbers actually understate the homogeneity of constituencies that returned a Republican majority to power in the House. Because state legislatures draw most House districts to favor their own majority party, more than 80 percent of those elected to the House won with at least 55 percent of the vote.

As a result, the everyday interactions Republicans have with their constituents and colleagues reinforce a lower-tax worldview diametrically opposed to that of their Democratic counterparts - and out of step with most Americans. The biggest threat to their careers is primary challenges from opponents more conservative than they are.

“It's who they are,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma. “It's the air they breathe. It's what the Republican electorate produces.”

Mr. Cole, a former chief of staff for the Republican National Committee, has lately become Mr. Obama's unlikely ally. He has tried, fruitlessly so far, to convince his colleagues that yielding to the president on higher rates for families with incomes of more than $250,000 would spare the party political damage while allowing them to fight the administration later on spending cuts.

What Mr. Boehner has proposed is allowing the top rate to revert to 39.6 percent for income of $1 million and above, and to raise his total for new revenue over 10 years to $1 trillion from $800 billion, according to a person familiar with his latest offer. That rate increase would raise far less revenue than Mr. Obama's plan, which would affect many more taxpayers.

In return, according to the person familiar with the talks, Mr. Boehner is seeking concessions from Mr. Obama on spending cuts now, rather than waiting until next year as Senate Republicans have suggested. Contrary to some reports, Mr. Boehner would also like to have some increase in the nation's borrowing limit as part of a year-end compromise on the Bush-era tax cuts and spending to avoid another battle over a Congressional vote to raise the limit, which will be needed as soon as January.

But as grudgingly as Mr. Boehner has moved even that far, there is no guarantee that he could sell such a proposal to his caucus even if Mr. Obama were to accept it. That underscores the difficulty of bridging the chasm between the principal negotiators.

“I don't think the president has any earthly idea” of the strength of Republican opposition, Mr. Cole said. “He moves in a different political culture.”

The cultural gap between the parties once was narrower - before conservative Southern Democrats became Republicans, liberal northern Republicans became Democrats and centrists dwindled. In 1990, days before Mr. Boehner was elected to the House, a Republican president, George Bush, joined a Democratic-controlled Congress to enact tax increases as part of a deficit-reduction package.

Of the 47 House Republicans who voted “aye” in 1990, only two remain. Of the 19 Senate Republicans, only two remain. One of those senators, Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, will leave office in January after losing his seat in a Republican primary. The Tea Party challenger who defeated him then lost to a Democrat.

“The sad story of the Republican Party is that we've become the party of primaries,” said Kim Alfano, Mr. Lugar's media consultant.

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries foreshadowed the difficulty Mr. Boehner now faces. In one debate, every candidate including Mr. Romney rejected the notion of a budget deal that would include tax increases even if accompanied by spending cuts 10 times as large.

“That was a danger sign,” said Peter Wehner, a deputy to former President George W. Bush's top political strategist, Karl Rove.

Because conservative voters outnumber liberals, ideological compromise comes more easily to Democrats. Self-described conservatives (35 percent of the electorate) cast 6 in 10 votes for Mr. Romney; those identifying as liberals (25 percent) cast 4 in 10 for Mr. Obama.

Now the prospect of blame for tax increases, spending cuts and an economic downturn forces Mr. Boehner and his allies to seek a compromise. If Mr. Obama accepts deeper spending cuts, Mr. Cole said, enough Republicans would brave anger from their base and back higher tax rates to permit a deal. Mr. Boehner could abandon trying to win over most of his caucus and assemble a majority made up principally of Democrats. But that would mean gambling with his speakership.

“He'd have to persuade them he is doing them a favor by allowing them to vote ‘no' ” on tax increases, said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the top House Democrat on budget issues. “I think he could pursue that strategy and keep his job.”

Reaction from the conservative news media poses another risk if Republicans compromise. “How does Fox play this?” asked former Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican and former chairman of his party's campaign committee.

The White House hopes another powerful voice may tip the balance. Many of Republicans' traditional business backers have urged a deal including tax increases to keep the economy from tipping back into a recession.

“Their position as the party of no new taxes is unsustainable,” said Bernadette Budde, who retired this month as a strategist for the Business Industry Political Action Committee. “If you're not going to listen to the business community about economic problems, who are you going to listen to? Some talk-radio host? Some blogger? Some political operative?”



How to Use the Rule (or Suggestion) of Thirds in Photos

Bryan Peterson, photographer and author, doesn't like to stifle creativity. So in his new book, “Understanding Composition,” when he describes the rule of thirds, a classic composition strategy, he prefers to call it the suggestion of thirds.

There are a lot of theories on why the rule of thirds works, none of them definitive. But there is general agreement that it does improve many photos.

To use the rule of thirds in a basic way, imagine a tick-tack-toe board over the scene you are framing for a shot; some cameras and phone camera apps let you place an actual grid in the viewfinder. Put the subject of your picture where the lines cross, which is a third of the way from the top or bottom and left or right.

It seems simple, but there are decisions to be made about what the subject should be and how to place it. Mr. Peterson explained using photos from his book.

Bryan Peterson

“The argument for this composition is, the focus point was dead center, so you made the main point where the focus was,” Mr. Peterson said. This kind of photo is good for documentation, but it lacks artistry. “To me it's an incredibly static image,” he said. Static is photo lingo for boring.

Bryan Peterson

Moving the tree a third to the right is an improvement but not a large one, because the horizon is still centered. Here is where another decision is made: “Is interest greatest below the horizon line, or above the horizon line?”

Bryan Peterson

Increasing the amount of sky is an improvement - the photo now conforms to the rule of thirds - but Mr. Peterson isn't finished. The sky, he said, is “what I refer to as ‘vanilla blue.' There are no white clouds, it's empty.” So if the question is which is more interesting visually, the sky or the field, the cloudless blue sky loses.

Bryan Peterson

With the tree off center, and the flowers filling the foreground, “we have introduced some degree of tension,” which is photo-speak for interest, Mr. Peterson said.

The rule of thirds works for many compositions, including portraits. The trick, Mr. Peterson said, is to get close and fill the frame: “You're not close enough until you have cut off part of the person's forehead. In my opinion, that is when you are close enough for a really intimate portrait.” With that done, most photographers will naturally apply the rule of thirds.

There is one technical trick to using the rule of thirds. Most cameras will automatically focus on the center of a frame, even if that isn't the intended subject. There are a number of ways to shift the focus to the subject.

The most obvious is to turn off the automatic setting and focus manually.

There is an easier trick that works for most cameras, which is to push the shutter button halfway to hold the focus. All you have to do is to put your subject in the center of the frame, and press the shutter button halfway. All of the settings will be loc ked. Now, still holding the button, frame the shot the way you want, and then press the button fully. Your intended subject should still be in focus.

Finally, many digital single-lens reflex cameras have movable focus points, meaning the camera can be focused automatically on a point that is not in the center. Most cameras have at least three focus points; some have more than 60. Check the manual to see how to do it.

Although the rule of thirds can help many photos, even abstracts, there is a reason that Mr. Peterson calls it a suggestion. “Some things do look better then they are smack dab in the middle,” he said.



Is the New T-Mobile Pricing a Good Deal?

T-Mobile has said it will start selling Apple products in 2013, but will stop underwriting the cost of phones with its contracts. That most likely means paying the full $650 for an iPhone.

But what most consumers overlook is that when they get a $650 iPhone 5 for $200 with a two-year contract, they aren't really getting a discount on the phone. The $450 difference is just hidden, spread out over the life of the contract.

So it raises the question, is getting a $650 iPhone from T-Mobile a good deal? It can be - especially for heavy data users. And you don't have to wait for the new pricing to take effect. If you know what to do you can get the deal now.

First, let's run the numbers. How much do these phones and plans really cost? I worked through some figures with the help of Validas, which analyzes phone use and costs.

With the T-Mobile contract you'd pay $650 for the iPhone and $70 a month for unlimited talk, text and data, for a total cost of $2,3 30 over two years, or $97 a month. The plan promises full unlimited data without slowing down the data connection when you reach a limit, as some of the others do.

Verizon has no unlimited plan, so to nearly match T-Mobile, you'd have to choose the 20GB data plan (far more than most people use), which adds $150 to the monthly contract, driving the cost to $190 a month plus $200 for the iPhone. That totals $4,760 a year, or $198 a month.

AT&T also has no unlimited plan, so you would also have to choose the 20GB data plan, which adds $200 a month to a $30 monthly voice and text fee. With a $200 iPhone that comes to $5,720 for two years, or $238 a month.

Sprint does have an unlimited plan for $110 a month. That plus the $200 iPhone comes to $2,840 total for two years, or $118 a month.

Bottom line: the T-Mobile deal is the best by a margin of $21 a month over the next best deal.

But this isn't a perfect comparison. Very few people use anywhere near 20GB of data. According to research by Validas, only 1 percent of smartphone owners use more than 4GB of data a month.

For a few dollars less than the T-Mobile plan, you could buy a 1GB monthly data plan from AT&T or Verizon, one that should satisfy the data needs of 83 percent of smartphone owners, Validas said.

That means that for the 17 percent of phone users who require more than 1GB of data a month, T-Mobile's is certainly the best deal.

You don't have to wait for T-Mobile to start its new pricing to take advantage of this deal. It is available now by buying a SIM card from T-Mobile. In this case you are just buying the chip that gives the phone its identity, and you are bringing your own phone. And it doesn't have to be an iPhone; it can be any phone that works on the GSM network, which is also the network AT&T (and most of Europe) uses.



TimesCast Politics: Both Sides Still Apart on a Fiscal Deal

Bono of U2 performed at the Lincoln Memorial on Jan. 18, 2009, for a celebration ahead of Barack Obama's first inaugurationDoug Mills/The New York TimesBono of U2 performed at the Lincoln Memorial on Jan. 18, 2009, for a celebration ahead of Barack Obama's first inauguration

There will be no big star-studded concert on the National Mall to celebrate President Obama's second inauguration next month, several of his inaugural planners said Wednesday.

In 2009, a string of A-list celebrities â€" including Bono, Bruce Springsteen, Beyoncé, Tom Hanks, Queen Latifah, Sheryl Crow and will.i.am â€" performed at the Lincoln Memorial in what was billed as the “We Are One'' celebration, which featured songs and historical readings. By some estimates more than 400,000 people attended.

But Mr. Obama, mindful of the difficult economy, has set a more low-key tone for his 2013 inaugural festivities. The only official concert will be a children's concert, similar to one that was held in 2009, according to the planners, who did not want to be identified because they have not yet made the schedule public.

Details for the 2013 children's concert have not been announced, but a private online solicitation to donors promised that individuals who contribute at least $75,000 and institutions or corporations that contribute at least $250,000 would get two tickets.

In 2009, the majority of tickets went to District of Columbia schoolchildren and sons and daughters of members of the military, with a small number of tickets going to donors. Inaugural p lanners say there will be a similar arrangement this time.



Iowans in House Pay Tribute to Colleague Who Lost Race

Harold Koh, the top lawyer in the State Department, will step down early next year and return to teaching at Yale Law School, a department official said on Wednesday. His impending departure is part of a major overhaul in the Obama administration's national security legal policy team, including the announcement last week that the Pentagon general counsel, Jeh C. Johnson, is resigning.

A prominent specialist in international law and human rights, Mr. Koh had been an outspoken critic of Bush administration legal policies in the war on terrorism, particularly its claim that harsh interrogation techniques were lawful despite antitorture laws and treaties. As the State Department legal adviser, Mr. Koh became a prominent defender of the legality of the Obama administration's national security policies, including drone strikes and the operation in which American commandos entered Pakistan and killed the Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.

The more hawkish tone adopted by Mr. Koh in office led to some criticism both by conservatives, who said his behavior exposed his previous critiques of Bush administration officials as unfair and overly harsh, and by liberals, who saw him as having compromised human rights principles.

But Mr. Koh defended his record, saying that the war against Al Qaeda did not end when President Obama took office and that he was pushing to show the United States could wage that war using lawful techniques and strategies and not unlawful ones. He said his positions were consistent when considered in context.

In June 2011, the Obama administration claimed that it was lawful for President Obama to continue American military participation in the NATO-led air war in Libya beyond a 60-day limit imposed by the War Powers Resolution on hostilities that have not been authorized by Congress. The theory â€" that such a multilateral air war was not the sort of “hostilities” envisioned b y the law â€" was developed by Mr. Koh.

That same month he delivered a speech before the American Constitution Society, a liberal legal group, in which he directly addressed critics who called him a hypocrite, saying he honestly believed the arguments he was making:

Now sometimes people ask me, and they usually do it at a place like this at the cocktail hour, “You know, isn't it hard to be a government lawyer, having to say all those things you don't believe?” So my answer, and I say it to all of you: I never say anything I don't believe. Why should I? I have tenure [laugher, applause]. I think. [laughter] If I quit this job I go back to a job where I have more job security, I work less hard, and I get paid a lot more. [laughter] So I say that for this reason. If you hear me say something, you can be absolutely sure that I believe it, and that's true whether I'm speaking about the U.S. policy toward the International Criminal Court, the legality of the administration's positions on drones, the lawfulness of the military operation against bin Laden, or the administration's position on war powers in Libya. If I say it, I believe it and I intend to stand by it and to argue for it.

Mr. Koh also said in that speech that his role as a government lawyer, advocating for an administration, was different from that of a professor who speaks only his own views. He said he “fiercely” argued for his preferred position inside the government, but once a decision was made he honestly defended it.

During his tenure, Mr. Koh clashed several times with Mr. Johnson in particular over such matters as the scope and limitations of the government's ability to detain without trial people on the outer fringes of Al Qaeda, and its legal authority to target low-level Islamist militants who were not part of Al Qaeda and who were in places like Yemen and Somalia, far from any so-called hot battlefield. In those battles Mr. Koh argued for greater restraint.

He also played an important role in negotiations over getting Chen Guangcheng, a prominent dissident who had fled to the United States Embassy in Beijing, and in getting a group of pro-democracy activists out of Egypt after authorities there accused them of working for groups receiving illegal foreign funding and blocked them from leaving the country.

Mr. Koh dealt with a range of other issues including territorial and navigation rights in the Arctic and the South China Sea, international anticounterfeiting measures, applying the laws of war to offensive cyber-operations, evaluating whether the ouster of the president of Honduras in 2009 constituted an illegal coup, and United States policy toward the International Criminal Court.

Mr. Koh is staying through the inauguration and then wil l return to teaching at Yale Law School, where he formerly was the dean. Mary McLeod, a career State Department lawyer, will serve as acting State Department legal adviser until the Senate confirms a successor, although Mr. Koh is said to be retaining his security clearance and will continue to handle special assignments and to consult.

Mr. Koh is close to Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is also stepping down. He had formerly served as an assistant secretary of state for human rights issues when her husband, Bill Clinton, was president. Mr. Koh's pending departure was first reported by The Wall Street Journal and then The Yale Daily News.

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: December 13, 2012

A previous version of this post misspelled the name of a career State Department lawyer. Her name is Mary McLeod, not Mary McCleod.

A version of this article appeared in print on 12/13/ 2012, on page A25 of the NewYork edition with the headline: State Department Legal Adviser Stepping Down.

Farm Bill Savings? Not Again, Watchdog Says

In Today's Times:

Making job creation its primary motive for intervention in the financial markets, the Federal Reserve said Wednesday that it planned to keep interest rates low as long as unemployment hovers at above-average rates. Binyamin Appelbaum writes that the move by the central bank underscores the concerns of monetary policy makers about the economic recovery.

Speaker John A. Boehner of Ohio is trying to contain the dissent within the Republican conference over negotiations with the White House for a deal to avoid tax increases and spending cuts that could send the country back into recession. Jonathan Weisman reports that Republican leaders have said that Mr. Boehner needs a unified party behind him i f he is to hold out for a conservative deficit deal, but his defectors are pushing him to either let taxes rise on incomes higher than $250,000 or take a ride into the fiscal unknown next month.

Having once derided the Bush-era tax cuts as irresponsible, Democrats now find themselves pushing to make most of the tax breaks permanent. Annie Lowrey explains that income stagnation over the past decade has put Democrats in an awkward position in the fiscal talks, forcing them to advocate for the tax breaks instead of letting them expire to provide more revenue for entitlement programs.

President Obama chided the Syrian military on Wednesday for firing powerful Scud missiles at rebels, but was not moved to intervene militarily, Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt write. The Obama administration has declined to join Allied forces in supporting opposition fighters in Syria but could be compelled to act if President Bashar al-Assad uses chemical weapons.

“Zero Dark Thirty,” a not-yet-released film about the hunt for Osama bin Laden, is dividing critics and journalists on the subject of torture, which is also the subject of a 6,000-page report due Thursday from the Senate Intelligence Committee, Scott Shane writes.

Happening in Washington:

Economic data expected today include the producer price index for November, retail sales for last month and weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m., followed at 10 by business inventories for October and weekly mortg age rates.

At 7 p.m., The Times' Rachel Swarns will discuss her book, “American Tapestry,” about Michelle Obama's genealogy, at the National Archives.

At 7:40 p.m., President Obama will speak at the White House's Hanukkah reception.

At 8 p.m., Justice Elena Kagan will discuss law and justice at the Sixth & I Historic Synagogue.



Carney Addresses School Shooting During White House Briefing

Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
  • 0:01  Boehner vs. Obama

    Michael D. Shear reports on House Speaker John A. Boehner's public critique of President Obama as private fiscal negotiations continue.

  • 4:10  Obama's Second Term

    David Leonhardt, Washington Bureau chief, and the reporter Annie Lowrey discuss the implications of the fiscal talks on President Obama's second term.

  • 9:19Â   Fight for City Hall

    Michael M. Grynbaum reports on the latest in the New York mayoral race, including Council Speaker Christine C. Quinn's relationship with Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg.

  • 13:32  Hollywood and the Torture Debate

    Scott Shane discusses how “Ground Zero Thirty,” a new movie about the killing of Osama bin Laden, has reignited the debate about harsh interrogation techniques.



Obama Responds to Connecticut School Shooting

Representative Tom Latham may have taken down a fellow veteran from Iowa, Representative Leonard Boswell, in a member-on-member race last month. But he said goodbye politely.

On the House floor Thursday, after votes, Mr. Latham, a Republican, paid tribute to Mr. Boswell, a Democrat first elected in 1996, reading the words he solicited from Iowa residents and officials including Terry Branstad, the state's Republican governor.

“I first want to thank him for his 20 years of service to our great nation in the U.S. Army,” Mr. Latham said. He added, “Although we haven't always agreed on the issues before us, Leonard's relationships with his fellow members have enabled him to work with colleagues of all political stripes.”

As Mr. Boswell looked on quietly, other members of both parties joined in the praise. Representative Steve King, the Iowa delegation's most conservative member, spoke of Mr. Boswell's enjoyment of cows â€" “I know he loves them an d takes good care of them” â€" and Representative Bruce Braley called Mr. Boswell “my mentor” and lauded, among other things, the time Mr. Boswell beat back an intruder in his home.

Mr. Boswell returned the favor, saying he loved and would miss serving in the House.



Gun Control Advocates Predict Tougher Response to Shootings

For the last week, the White House daily briefing has been consumed by often prosaic questions about the budget talks between President Obama and Republicans on Capitol Hill.

On Friday, a grim, sometimes surreal drama pushed those questions aside, as the spokesman, Jay Carney, offered the White House's first reaction to one of the worst mass shootings in American history.

With information initially sketchy and with new reports on the number of fatalities and the response of local authorities flooding into the cellphones of the White House press corps, Mr. Carney found himself reacting to developments as the tragedy unfolded.

With the enormity of the violence becoming clear, reporters shifted their questions from whether the administration would use the moment to press for stricter gun-control laws (Mr. Carney sidestepped that question) to a simpler quest for President Obama's reaction.

“I think it's important on a day like today to view this, as I know the president as a father does, and I as a father and others who are parents certainly do, which is to feel enormous sympathy for families that are affected and to do everything we can to support state and local law enforcement and to support those who are enduring what appears to be a very tragic event,” Mr. Carney said.

Mr. Obama, he said, had been informed of the shooting at 10:30 a.m. by John O. Brennan, his adviser on counterterrorism and homeland security. But Mr. Carney was careful not to discuss details, saying that the White House was waiting for further details.

Later, a reporter told Mr. Carney that Gov. Dannel P. Malloy of Connecticut had also spoken by phone with Mr. Obama, according to a report from the governor's office. Minutes later, Mr. Carney, armed with new information, was able to confirm that Mr. Obama, as well as the director of the Federal Bureau o f Investigation, Robert S. Mueller III, had spoken to Mr. Malloy.

By the end of the briefing, Mr. Carney said it was likely that the president himself would address the tragedy later on Friday.



Foreseeing the Issues in Medicare\'s Future

Fighting back tears, President Obama declared that the hearts of Americans were "broken" in the wake of the shootings in Connecticut and he said the country must "come together to take meaningful action" to prevent future tragedies.

Sunday Breakfast Menu, Dec. 16

Official Washington's response to the Connecticut school massacre Friday came along predictable lines, with Republicans and many moderate Democrats expressing their condolences and horror while silent on a legislative response to gun violence, and liberal Democrats saying it is time to move forward with serious gun legislation.

But advocates of gun control say the shootings at an elementary school in Newtown might be different for two reasons: the victims were children, eliciting a gut-wrenching response across the country, and the National Rifle Association proved to be a political paper tiger in the 2012 election.

“The political atmosphere has clearly changed because now we have solid evidence that the N.R.A. just was not effective in the last election cycle,” said Kristen Rand, legislative director for the Violence Policy Center, a gun-control advocacy group. “This just has a feel that they won't get away with doing nothing this time.”

The response to mass shootings, even the one that nearly took the life of a member of Congress, Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona, has followed a familiar pattern. On the day of the attack, politicians express shock and grief but maintain it is not the time to talk politics. A few members of Congress dust off long-dormant gun control bills in the days to follow. Then the issue fades away.

Representative Carolyn McCarthy, Democrat of New York, who came to the House after her husband was killed in a mass shooting on the Long Island Rail Road, said Friday that she would not let that happen this time.

“The time to talk about it should have been after the last shooting or the shooting before that,” she said.

Ms. McCarthy said she had met with her staff on Thursday to plan her legislative battles for the coming year. At that meeting, she said, she declared that she would resume her quest for far-reaching gun violence legislation, reinstating the assault weapons ban, banning high-capacity ammunition magazines, instituting criminal background checks on gun buyers at gun shows, and improving instant background checks to more thoroughly catch people with histories of mental illness.

“I'm not going to be shy anymore,” she said .



Talks Highlight a Structural Divide

Sunday's Breakfast MenuStephen Crowley/The New York Times

In the wake of the mass shooting at a Connecticut elementary school on Friday, the Sunday shows take a look at what happened there and what can be done to prevent such tragedies.

Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg of New York City, an outspoken advocate for gun control, will be joining NBC's “Meet the Press” to talk about the shooting. Gov. Dannel P. Malloy of Connecticut will discuss  how his state is responding to the tragedy.

Also, Senator Dianne Feinstein, Democrat of California, and Randi Weingarten, president of the American Federation of Teachers, wi ll be among those joining NBC's roundtable discussion about the shooting.

Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, independent of Connecticut, will be appearing on “Fox News Sunday.” Also on the program will be Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate, and Representative Louie Gohmert, Republican of Texas, talking about gun control.

Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, Republican of Texas, will appear on CBS's “Face the Nation” with Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York, to discuss whether Congress should take up the issue of gun regulation now.

ABC's “This Week” and CNN's “State of the Union” will offer full coverage of the aftermath of the shooting.

Representative Cathy McMorris Rodgers of Washington, incoming chairwoman of the House Republican Conference, discusses talks to avert the so-called fiscal cliff on C-Span's “Newsmakers.”

Bloomberg's “Political Capital” has Representative Pete Sessions of Texas, incoming chairman of the House Rules Committee.

Univision's “Al Punto” features a discussion of gun control in the wake of Friday's shooting.

Topics include Ambassador Susan E. Rice's decision to drop her bid for secretary of state, the shooting death of a Florida teenager and Michigan's changes to the way unions are financed on TV One's “Washington Watch.”



Speaker\'s Overture on Taxes Raises Hope for Fiscal Deal

WASHINGTON - To Democrats, Republican resistance to raising tax rates on affluent Americans seems not only stubborn, but also befuddling and self-defeating.

Public opinion strongly favors it. President Obama just won re-election campaigning more strongly on the tax issue than on any other. Federal revenue as a share of the economy is near a 60-year low. Washington faces a $1 trillion annual deficit.

Yet even as some party leaders and intellectuals urge them to concede the point, most rank-and-file House Republicans refuse. That is why Speaker John A. Boehner has moved so gingerly, finally offering late last week to raise rates only on incomes of $1 million or more, despite calls from Senate Republicans for a deeper concession.Read More     

The reasons run deep in the structure of 21st-century American politics, and the modern Republican Party.

The national exit poll conducted by Edison Research for the November election illustrates how polarization by party and ideology has estranged the coalitions behind Mr. Obama and Mr. Boehner in their stalled negotiations.

Seven of 10 Obama voters said government should be doing more to solve problems. Eight in 10 voters said tax rates should rise. (Two-thirds said tax rates should rise for incomes over $250,000, and another 13 percent said taxes should go up for everyone.) By contrast, 8 in 10 voters who backed the Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, said government already did too much. A 54 percent majority said no one's tax rates should rise.

Those national numbers actually understate the homogeneity of constituencies that returned a Republican majority to power in the House. Because state legislatures draw most House districts to favor their own majority party, more than 80 percent of those elected to the House won with at least 55 percent of the vote.

As a result, the everyday interactions Republicans have with their constituents and colleagues reinforce a lower-tax worldview diametrically opposed to that of their Democratic counterparts - and out of step with most Americans. The biggest threat to their careers is primary challenges from opponents more conservative than they are.

“It's who they are,” said Representative Tom Cole, Republican of Oklahoma. “It's the air they breathe. It's what the Republican electorate produces.”

Mr. Cole, a former chief of staff for the Republican National Committee, has lately become Mr. Obama's unlikely ally. He has tried, fruitlessly so far, to convince his colleagues that yielding to the president on higher rates for families with incomes of more than $250,000 would spare the party political damage while allowing them to fight the administration later on spending cuts.

What Mr. Boehner has proposed is allowing the top rate to revert to 39.6 percent for income of $1 million and above, and to raise his total for new revenue over 10 years to $1 trillion from $800 billion, according to a person familiar with his latest offer. That rate increase would raise far less revenue than Mr. Obama's plan, which would affect many more taxpayers.

In return, according to the person familiar with the talks, Mr. Boehner is seeking concessions from Mr. Obama on spending cuts now, rather than waiting until next year as Senate Republicans have suggested. Contrary to some reports, Mr. Boehner would also like to have some increase in the nation's borrowing limit as part of a year-end compromise on the Bush-era tax cuts and spending to avoid another battle over a Congressional vote to raise the limit, which will be needed as soon as January.

But as grudgingly as Mr. Boehner has moved even that far, there is no guarantee that he could sell such a proposal to his caucus even if Mr. Obama were to accept it. That underscores the difficulty of bridging the chasm between the principal negotiators.

“I don't think the president has any earthly idea” of the strength of Republican opposition, Mr. Cole said. “He moves in a different political culture.”

The cultural gap between the parties once was narrower - before conservative Southern Democrats became Republicans, liberal northern Republicans became Democrats and centrists dwindled. In 1990, days before Mr. Boehner was elected to the House, a Republican president, George Bush, joined a Democratic-controlled Congress to enact tax increases as part of a deficit-reduction package.

Of the 47 House Republicans who voted “aye” in 1990, only two remain. Of the 19 Senate Republicans, only two remain. One of those senators, Richard G. Lugar of Indiana, will leave office in January after losing his seat in a Republican primary. The Tea Party challenger who defeated him then lost to a Democrat.

“The sad story of the Republican Party is that we've become the party of primaries,” said Kim Alfano, Mr. Lugar's media consultant.

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries foreshadowed the difficulty Mr. Boehner now faces. In one debate, every candidate including Mr. Romney rejected the notion of a budget deal that would include tax increases even if accompanied by spending cuts 10 times as large.

“That was a danger sign,” said Peter Wehner, a deputy to former President George W. Bush's top political strategist, Karl Rove.

Because conservative voters outnumber liberals, ideological compromise comes more easily to Democrats. Self-described conservatives (35 percent of the electorate) cast 6 in 10 votes for Mr. Romney; those identifying as liberals (25 percent) cast 4 in 10 for Mr. Obama.

Now the prospect of blame for tax increases, spending cuts and an economic downturn forces Mr. Boehner and his allies to seek a compromise. If Mr. Obama accepts deeper spending cuts, Mr. Cole said, enough Republicans would brave anger from their base and back higher tax rates to permit a deal. Mr. Boehner could abandon trying to win over most of his caucus and assemble a majority made up principally of Democrats. But that would mean gambling with his speakership.

“He'd have to persuade them he is doing them a favor by allowing them to vote ‘no' ” on tax increases, said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, the top House Democrat on budget issues. “I think he could pursue that strategy and keep his job.”

Reaction from the conservative news media poses another risk if Republicans compromise. “How does Fox play this?” asked former Representative Tom Davis, a Virginia Republican and former chairman of his party's campaign committee.

The White House hopes another powerful voice may tip the balance. Many of Republicans' traditional business backers have urged a deal including tax increases to keep the economy from tipping back into a recession.

“Their position as the party of no new taxes is unsustainable,” said Bernadette Budde, who retired this month as a strategist for the Business Industry Political Action Committee. “If you're not going to listen to the business community about economic problems, who are you going to listen to? Some talk-radio host? Some blogger? Some political operative?”



The Early Word: Solace

In Today's Times

  • President Obama traveled to Newtown, Conn., on Sunday to offer words of solace to the bereaved town, and to chide the nation for not having done enough to prevent mass shootings like the one that left 28 people there dead, 20 of them children, Mark Landler and Peter Baker report.
  • Much of the groundwork for the quick victory of Michigan's “right-to-work” legislation, which bans mandatory union payments, was laid in the months and years before it passed. A loose network of donors, strategists and conservative political groups bet that the dollars invested in local elections would yield concrete policy victories that could not be had in Washington, Nicholas Confessore and Monica Davey r eport.
  • Mr. Obama is leaning strongly toward naming Senator John Kerry, Democrat of Massachusetts, to succeed Hillary Rodham Clinton as secretary of state, David E. Sanger reports. But the announcement will be delayed because of the Connecticut school shooting and what one official called “some discomfort” with the idea of Mr. Obama's announcing a national security team in which the top posts are almost exclusively held by white men.
  • The Democratic Party in California now holds a supermajority in the Legislature, giving it a chance to lock in long-term control, but also raising concerns that legislative overreach could make the party's reign brief, Adam Nagourney writes.
  • Mr. Obama and Speaker John A. Boehner expressed new optimism on Sunday that a deal to avert the fiscal crisis could be reached this week, Jonathan Weisman and Jackie Calmes write. Mr. Boehner's latest offer to allow tax rates to rise on incomes over $1 million signaled that both teams could put aside their philosophical arguments and begin wrangling over price.

Around the Web

  • Ron Weiser, the finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, was caught on video mocking voters in Detroit, The Associated Press reports.

Happenings in Washington

  •  Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack will conduct a live Virtual Office Hours session on Twitter at 3:30 p.m.
  • A special performance f rom the musical “Wicked” will mark the donation and display of the Elphaba costume at the Smithsonian's National Museum of American History.