Redistricting Likely to Hamper Democratic Efforts in 2014, Study Finds

Thanks largely to the way Congressional districts were drawn in the latest round of redistricting, even a dramatic wave election like the one in 2008 that swept President Obama into power and added to Democratic majorities in Congress would do little to alter the composition of the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, a new, nonpartisan study found.

FairVote, an organization that examines voting patterns and laws, predicts that Republicans will maintain control of the House in 2014 unless Democrats meet the unlikely threshold of winning 56 percent of the vote nationwide.

In nonpresidential elections, the president’s party rarely gains seats in Congress.

Few external factors are likely to change what has effectively become a fixed game, FairVote said. Republicans seem likely to hold the House even if Democrats have another banner year like 2008. Even the ever-growing flow of money into politics is unlikely to make a difference in the outcome of races, the study concluded.

The study contained other startling findings. A majority of House members â€" 262 out of 435 â€" are in such safe districts that they are expected to win by at least 16 points. FairVote notes that this is a cushion “far outside what it would take to put them at risk even in a year in which their party does very poorly over all.”

“As a result,” the group said, “most Americans will not have a realistic chance to elect a Congressional representative of a different party.” Only 21 races â€" less than 5 percent â€" are expected to be tossups, defined as races in which the incumbent is expected to receive 47 percent to 53 percent of the vote in a two-party contest.

FairVote acknowledges that its predictions are not based on an ingenious model or on the prowess of its number crunchers. In fact, the group says the system appears to be so rigged that “the outcomes of most Congressional races are effectively predetermined long before the election takes place.”

FairVote based its projections on recent presidential and Congressional election results, not on poll results.