After an election season in which it received significant criticism for the results of its Daily Tracking poll, Gallup announced last week that Michael Traugott, a polling expert from the University of Michigan, is helping the company review its election polling methods.
The tracking poll, which was watched closely as it released new horse-race numbers every day throughout the course of the campaign, had a final estimate of 50 percent for Mitt Romney and 49 percent for President Obama (the actual outcome was 51 percent for Mr. Obama to 47 percent for Mr. Romney). While many polls showed a tight race up to the end, Gallup received additional scrutiny for showing Mr. Romney with a numerical, albeit statistically insignificant, edge. (Gallup also had Mr. Romney with a five-point advantage in late October and a seven-point lead in mid-October.)
Mr. Traugott, Gallup notes, is an expert in polling methodolog and led a review for the American Association for Public Opinion Research examining the inaccuracy of the 2008 New Hampshire Democratic primary polls.
Issues being reviewed by Gallup range from ones pollsters have dealt with for decades, including likely voter screening, to ones that have only begun presenting challenges in recent election cycles, like cellphone sampling.
